The ongoing IPL2 has come at the right time for all countries participating in the T20 World Cup. The Indians seem to be the only one though, who are making the most of it. Players from their (likely) team are all playing the IPL2 while only few players of the other countries are participating in the event.
The Indian selectors must be having a first-hand look at the probables for the T20 World Cup. Form, temperament and class are on display - factors that can change the fortunes of the fringe players like RP Singh. The batsmen like Raina, Yusuf Pathan are getting valuable match practice - one hopes that they do not peak too early. Playing with veterans like Sachin Tendulkar, Rahul Dravid, Shane Warne, Adam Gilchrist will only help their career further. The dressing room experience that they gain with these experts will go a long way in moulding their career. The Indians definitely will be the team to beat in the World Cup.
South Africa has benefited from the politics surrounding IPL2. Their stars like Smith, Gibbs, AB De Viliers, Duminy, Steyn, Kallis are part of various teams - even lesser players like Yusuf Abdulla are finding slots in the playing eleven. They are gaining very useful experience in the newest game on the circuit, that will help them regain the No.1 slot in T20s also.
If Australia picks their team for the T20 World Cup from their veterans, they will be definitely counted as the favorites. Alas, that is not to be. The current team players are not participating - with the ODI series against Pakistan coming in the way, if not the dictats of Cricket Australia (for players like Brett Lee and Shaun Tait). The team is on their downward trend and there is no reason why their followers can harbor any hopes for success in the World Cup.
England has their star players like Kevin Pietersen, Andrew Flintoff and Dimitri Mascarenhas taking part in different teams. Of course, Flintoff has rushed back due to injury, but he along with his English compatriots must have realized what they missed in the first IPL last year. This experience will definitely add to their expertise in the forthcoming World Cup. This and the fact that it is being played in England will give some hope to the founders of T20 cricket.
IPL2 is giving the Sri Lankan players a good chance to play cricket during the troubled times that the island country is facing back home. It is also helping players like Lasith Malinga come back to international cricket in a phased manner. Their senior players like Jayawardene, Sangakkara, Dilshan have done well in the matches they have played so far.
Stars of West Indies - Chris Gayle, Dwayne Bravo, Fidel Edwards - are playing in IPL2 and doing very well. Their performances will be encouraging the hopes of the Caribbean supporters and this team can be counted as the favorites for the World Cup.
The Pakistan team is busy playing the Aussies in Dubai. Even if they were not, they wouldnt have participated in IPL2. They will be a little under-cooked for the World Cup.
In all, the teams should thank IPL2 for giving the players of all cricketing teams a chance to prepare and practise for the World Cup. This alone must force ICC to give a window in their Future Tours Program for IPL.
Sunday, April 26, 2009
Sunday, April 12, 2009
Tracking Run-chases in T20
For many years, the chases in any ODIs have been captured by the 'Required Run Rate' factor. This is usually the number of runs per over the chasing team has to score in an over to overhaul the score set by the team batting first. With the spurt of T20s to be played in the next few months (IPL2 and then the ICC T20 World Cup), I realized that this factor is probably not enough to capture the excitement of the game. So, I set out looking at what could be an alternative parameter that can be tracked through the 20 overs.
I have taken the recent Australia-South Africa T20 International as reference. The first chart shows the comparison of two teams - how both the teams have fared in the corresponding overs. But, when one looks at it, does it give us a clear number on how much the chasing team has to score in the next few overs, to come near the required score? No.
The second chart shows the Required Run Rate. Yes, this is better than the previous chart. It gives exactly how many runs per over the chasing team should score. This suits the 50 over matches perfectly where there is enough time for the viewers to judge how the chase is being executed.
In a T20 over match, however, each ball is significant. Hence, we arrive at the (R-B) factor. This is the difference between the Runs to be hit and the Balls remaining. This clearly shows how many additional runs have to be scored (assuming that the team is scoring 6 runs per over or run-a-ball) to meet the score. This factor has to reach 0 or get into negative zone for the chasing team to feel secure. It also gives the batsmen at the crease, an idea of when to launch the aggressive strokes and when to go for rotating the strike. At the end of the 20 overs, this factor will be the winning margin of the match.
Let us take it a step further. Let us divide the R-B factor by the Overs remaining. This will give you the number of runs (more than 6) that needs to be scored by the batsmen. If you notice closely, this is nothing but the Required Run Rate.
Let us take the Wickets factor then. What happens if you factor the Wickets remaining in the equation. The equation shows a steady rate when wickets are in the bag but increases dramatically, once they start falling.
If you take the combination of Overs and Wickets with the R-B factor, a ratio of 1 seems to be the ideal one. More than this, the chart zooms up rapidly, thus showing the desperation need to be displayed by the chasing team.
Even though the last chart represents the situation very well, the calculation gets a bit complicated for the average viewer. Hence, it is better to go back to the R-B factor. This seems to be the simple factor that will help the chasing team figure out how to launch their chase in the coming overs. How many runs close to 0 they get to, will determine the health of the chase.
This definitely, will help viewers in following the T20 matches in the next few months. When the pace of the game is changed, the parameters that one uses to follow it needs tweaking as well. I am sure all of us will enjoy the game further by following the R-B parameter. Let me know your comments on this.
Update: I have added another worm that is shown as 'R-E' rate. This is nothing but what would be the ideal way a team would be able to chase down the target. This can show how the chasing team is doing with respect to the actual scores.
I have taken the recent Australia-South Africa T20 International as reference. The first chart shows the comparison of two teams - how both the teams have fared in the corresponding overs. But, when one looks at it, does it give us a clear number on how much the chasing team has to score in the next few overs, to come near the required score? No.
The second chart shows the Required Run Rate. Yes, this is better than the previous chart. It gives exactly how many runs per over the chasing team should score. This suits the 50 over matches perfectly where there is enough time for the viewers to judge how the chase is being executed.
In a T20 over match, however, each ball is significant. Hence, we arrive at the (R-B) factor. This is the difference between the Runs to be hit and the Balls remaining. This clearly shows how many additional runs have to be scored (assuming that the team is scoring 6 runs per over or run-a-ball) to meet the score. This factor has to reach 0 or get into negative zone for the chasing team to feel secure. It also gives the batsmen at the crease, an idea of when to launch the aggressive strokes and when to go for rotating the strike. At the end of the 20 overs, this factor will be the winning margin of the match.
Let us take it a step further. Let us divide the R-B factor by the Overs remaining. This will give you the number of runs (more than 6) that needs to be scored by the batsmen. If you notice closely, this is nothing but the Required Run Rate.
Let us take the Wickets factor then. What happens if you factor the Wickets remaining in the equation. The equation shows a steady rate when wickets are in the bag but increases dramatically, once they start falling.
If you take the combination of Overs and Wickets with the R-B factor, a ratio of 1 seems to be the ideal one. More than this, the chart zooms up rapidly, thus showing the desperation need to be displayed by the chasing team.
Even though the last chart represents the situation very well, the calculation gets a bit complicated for the average viewer. Hence, it is better to go back to the R-B factor. This seems to be the simple factor that will help the chasing team figure out how to launch their chase in the coming overs. How many runs close to 0 they get to, will determine the health of the chase.
This definitely, will help viewers in following the T20 matches in the next few months. When the pace of the game is changed, the parameters that one uses to follow it needs tweaking as well. I am sure all of us will enjoy the game further by following the R-B parameter. Let me know your comments on this.
Update: I have added another worm that is shown as 'R-E' rate. This is nothing but what would be the ideal way a team would be able to chase down the target. This can show how the chasing team is doing with respect to the actual scores.
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