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Session-dashboard - Tracking Test Matches as they progress.
Tracking T20 run-chases in an innovative manner - See here.

Saturday, March 30, 2013

T20 - what is the norm?

IPL6 is starting next week and the question on my mind was what to expect? Will there be a glut of runs or a comeback by the bowlers with a restraining performance? To do any forecasts, the next question was about the past track record. We are lucky to have data (only the top 50 players of the edition have been considered) from five previous seasons of IPL to analyze. That is exactly what I set out to do.

The numbers seem to differing within 10% of each other - let us look at them in detail. One glaring statistic is that the best season for bowlers is IPL2 when the tournament was held in South Africa (bowlers had the best average and strike-rate while batsmen had the least average and strike-rate).

  • Strike-rate - The average strike-rate over the five editions is 128 runs per 100 balls. What this means is that the average score in a IPL T20 match will be 154 as per past data. 
  • Average - The average average (no, its not a typo) is 29.77. The numbers are very close the past three years - amazing stuff! If each batsman scores 30 runs, five will get score past 150
If the average score is 154, then the team that scores this total will lose 5 wickets (assuming 30 runs per wicket). Will we see the scores of 140-150 for the loss of 4-5 wickets then? Let us see.

  • Strike-rate - The bowling strike-rate is 20.33 over the five editions. This works out to six wickets in the 20 overs (which is one wicket more than what we had assumed earlier)
  • Average - The bowling average is 25.42 for five years. What this means is that for six wickets, the team will concede 150 (25 runs x 6 wickets) runs.
Again, using this data, let us tinker the conclusion after the batting numbers. 

Scores of 140-160 runs for the loss of 4-6 wickets will be the norm in IPL6. Will we see this?
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