SAF 1st T20I - India lose depite putting up 200

The stats before the match started was surprising to me - India were leading the Proteans 6-2 in T20I matches. Wow! Really!! The long series started in Dharamsala and the pitch was more in favor of the South Africans rather than Indians - fair enough. The dew factor would have an effect but since the match started at 7PM local time, both teams would have an impact.

The Indian team batted first against a second-string South African bowling attack (Steyn and Morkel were rested due to the schedule mostly). While Rohit and Kohli smashed the bowling apart, the rest of the batting could not leverage further. The target was 200 which I thought was a tad lesser than what could have been, when Rohit was going great. India persisted with Rayudu (instead of Rahane) and though he didnt get many balls to face, I think he is not a T20I player. Time to look at options like Gurkeerat Singh Mann (who scored a double century in Ranji match) or Manish Pandey or even Sanju Samson. India needs a dasher if MSD is playing at No.4 - every team has one. Maxwell, Duminy, Morgan being examples of this genre.

India had a new left-arm new ball bowler after a long time - Sreenath Aravind. He, along with his new ball partner Bhuvneshwar Kumar, went for runs against the partnership of Amla and ABD. Ashwin, with his new-found confidence and ball-skills, pulled the team back with a run-out and dismissal of ABD. But JP Duminy bailed the team and brought them home.

The Indian team will come back on pitches that are more subcontinental than this one but it is important to learn the lessons from this match. The T20 bowling needs overhaul - Bhuvi is good with his yorkers while it was the first match for Aravind. Who is the other partner for Ashwin? Axar gave away the match with three consecutive sixes - is Harbhajan a better bowler in this format? If India wants to play Mishra in tests, better not to play him in the limited overs format. Who else then, after Ravindra Jadeja (who by the way is on his way to a ten-wicket haul in the first Ranji match)?

2015 World Cup - thoughts on first semifinal

Though I had backed New Zealand to win the match, I thought that South Africa were wronged in this crucial match. How?

1. Rain-rule. Though the match had a reserve day, overs were reduced when there was a rain delay. The rationale was that all efforts would be made to complete the match during the scheduled time. Why then do you have a reserve day, ICC? What might have happened if NZ had to face only 20 overs? The target would have been a par-score for a regular T20 match (we all know how D/L score for T20 is)
2. Revised target. Have a look at the typical run-rates of South Africa in this World Cup - what he says is that in the last five overs, South Africa typically score at 16 runs per over. That means 80 runs in 5 overs. Add 2 more overs at 10 runs per over. Now, add 100 runs to the score of 281 and you will know what would have been the score that South Africa might have achieved. This was very much possible as South Africa had AB De Viliers and JP Duminy at the crease and NZ had Corey Anderson to bowl 3-4 overs more. The mere numbers would have put high pressure on New Zealand. Definitely, they would have crumbled. But, it was not meant to be.

R/o #CWC15 46-50 ov SA 16.05 WI 14.13 NZ 13.45 Au 11.13 Eg 9.63 SL 9.08 In 8.52 Bn 8.43 ------ Zm 7.09 Pk 7.37 Ir 7.57 Sc 7.80 #BingPredicts
— Mohandas Menon (@mohanstatsman) March 23, 2015

Even though these two points were to the disadvantage of South Africa, they have themselves to blame for the following turning points:

The botched run-out attempt by AB De Viliers during the partnership of Anderson and Elliot. This could have made a difference. I feel that it was because the fielder was such a hyper-energetic personality like ABD, the runout could not happen. He reached the wicket faster than anyone would have - that pace made him trip over the stumps!

The missed catch of Elliot, thanks to JP Duminy crashing into his colleague. Very poor cricket indeed - definitely, JP must have seen that Behardien was in a good position to catch the ball but still JP bumped into him!

Of course, Steyn was injured in the final over and that also hampered his bowling. If I was a South African fan, I would point to many factors during the match. But, there have been none mentioned by their captain or the players. Definitely a great way to accept a close loss in sport, showing that there is much more than just cricket. Good stuff, South Africa!

All photos courtesy Cricinfo Site

The case of Rohit, JP and Umar

In the cricketing world, all of us agree that we are in the midst of some extraordinary talent - talent that may not touch the heights of Sachin Tendulkar, Ricky Ponting or Inzamam-ul-Haq but will take their countries to the pinnacle in some form or the other. But, it is also disturbing to see the likes of Rohit Sharma, JP Duminy and Umar Akmal falter the way they have been in recent times.

The three of them have been given chances galore by their country but they have not risen to the occasion as well as they would have or their captains would have liked. It becomes frustrating from the perspective of their fans that such a huge talent is wasted amidst talents that do not scale to the half-way mark. 

Let us look at their numbers for a moment:

• JP Duminy - age of 28 years. 16 tests at an average of close to 38, 92 ODIs at 40. Though the numbers do not show anything wrong, they have come down a notch in recent times. It was expected that JP will be the fulcrum of the Proteas batting with AB De Viliers - but that was not to be. After a great 2010-11 season, JP has not been able to catch up with the rest of his team-mates. 
• Rohit Sharma - age of 25 years. Though he has not played any tests so far, he has been helped by a captain who thinks he has a big future. 85 ODIs at an average of 31 does not do Rohit any justice at all. His penchant to play across the line has led to many downfall. He is still in the scheme of things but time is running out and there are other talented players waiting for his spot in the team.
• Umar Akmal - age of 22 years. An average of 36 in 16 tests, 39 in 69 ODIs once again does not reflect the talent that is inherent in this youngster. If he can only put in the effort like Hafeez or Ajmal, this youngster can reach the heights of the world. He has promised so much in his innings only to falter at the wrong time. Reminds one of a certain Basit Ali from the earlier days.

Do they need a challenge to deliver their performance? Or is it something more serious - having reached the highest level, do they not have the drive to perform day in and day out? 

Whatever it is, world cricket is poorer by their absence at the headlines of the sports page!

The timing of the Batting PowerPlay

I dont think any of the international teams have conquered the PowerPlay situation in ODIs, especially the batting PowerPlay. The Bowling PowerPlay mostly is completed from the 10th to 15th over of any innings unless there is a batsman who is taking the bowling to sword. The batting version is the one that is very dicey most of the times. Let us take the latest India-South Africa ODI series as an example and see how the teams used this PowerPlay in each ODI, starting from the first one.

1. South Africa took the PP at Kingsmead in Overs 27.1 - 32.0 scoring 45 runs without losing any wicket. AB De Viliers and JP Duminy were at the crease and they used this effectively. In the Indian innings, Virat Kohli and Suresh Raina were repairing the innings after 5 wickets had fallen for less than a hundred - they tried to take a leaf out of the opposition and take the PP during the overs 29.1 - 34.0. Alas, three wickets were lost for  23 runs that quickly brought the Indian tail to the fore. The Indian response was as well as done by the end of this phase.
2. At the Wanderers, India were going good, placed at 169-4 when they took the PP at Overs 41.1 - 46.0. One thought that this was a good time chosen by MSD. Once again, the team lost 4 wickets for 14 runs and the tail was exposed. But in the second innings of the match, the Proteas would go one up on the Indians by taking a PP when one was not required. The team was coasting to a win in a canter when Greame Smith opted to finish the match early. He took the PP in Overs 31.1 - 36.0 losing 3 wickets for 20 runs. This time it was the tail of South Africa that was targeted by the Indians successfully. 
3.  At Capetown, India took advantage of the PP taken by the Proteas. They took 4 wickets for 25 runs during the Overs 44.1 - 49.0. Once again, from a healthy situation of 200 for 4 they were all out in the last over for 220. In reply, Harbhajan Singh and Zaheer Khan were forced with no other option but take the PP during Overs 42.1 - 47.0. 27 runs scored for the wicket of Zaheer meant that the target was reduced to less than a dozen once finished.
4. South Africa regained their PowerPlay touch at Port Elizabeth. Their batsmen were ready for the final assault and took the PP during the last 5 overs of the innings - 45 runs for 1 wicket was the final figures from the PowerPlay. Because of rains and reduction in overs, the Indians could not take their 3rd PowerPlay when their turn came.
5.  At Centurion, the Proteas batted first again. Rains once again reduced the PowerPlay to 4 overs only - taken during Overs 41.1 - 44.0 - not much use, they scored 20 runs losing 1 wicket. The Indians took their PowerPlay when Yusuf Pathan was in his full flight - Overs 34.1 - 38.0. He utilized the first over, smashing Tsotsobe all over the ground but was dismissed the very next over. A total of 34 runs were scored for the loss of Pathan.

Why do batting teams falter during their turn of the PowerPlay? Is there increased expectations on the batsman to score runs at a rate of 10 per over? Looks like that is definitely the planning of most teams. They feel that if they can take the PowerPlay when batsmen are settled at the crease and wickets to follow, they can maximize the overs then and the final 10 overs also. Thus, they tend to throw caution to the wind and take risks. This tends to backfire mostly with the bowling team taking crucial breakthroughs. 

Another strategy is to take it after 34 overs when the mandatory ball-change happens. The ball is harder and the batsmen can take advantage of the five overs. It is just not the timing of these five overs that is breaking everyones head but the strategy to adopt is crucial. This is the trend in all ODI series so far. 

I feel that the bowling team is at an advantage during this phase. Mostly, these days, field placings are defensive with fielders standing outside the 30-yard circle saving the singles. The batsmen can easily milk the bowling by taking singles and twos. This PowerPlay forces the captain to field players inside the circle and put pressure on the batsmen. Singles are no longer easy and batsmen are forced to take more risks.

Whoever has the right strategy in place by the time the World Cup starts, they will be the ones to benefit the most. What do you think is the right strategy to adopt?

Related articles

• World Cup 2011 - Dhoni has questions answered after SAF ODIs (myhistoryisinteresting.blogspot.com)

Rotation Rate is as important as Strike Rate

Rotation Rate - What is rotation rate? Just like strike-rate determines the runs scored by a batsman in 100 balls, Rotation-rate is one which we will try to determine the rate a batsman scores runs (other than boundaries) in an innings.

Hence, I tried taking the latest India-South Africa series as an example. The runs scored in the series are showed here. Thanks to Cricinfo, information about the number of fours and sixes are mentioned as well. The process followed is given below:

• Count the runs scored in boundaries and deduct them from the total runs scored - this will give the runs scored in 1's, 2's and 3's (& maybe 5's).
• Deduct the number of boundaries scored (number of fours + number of sixes) from the number of balls faced by a batsman - this will give the balls faced by the batsman where he has ntot scored a boundary
• Dividing the runs scored (other than by boundary hits) by the balls faced (when a boundary was not hit) gives the rotation rate
• The last column shows the difference between the Strike Rate and Rotation Rate

Quite interesting revelations here

• Yusuf Pathan has the highest difference between the two rates. Not surprising given that he scores many runs in boundary hits
• JP Duminy and MS Dhoni have similar rates - again knowing their game, it is another evidence to show they are well-equipped in the ODI format
• Amla also scores many boundaries and thus his difference is high as well

This is one factor that the Indians need to take care - along with the boundaries, they will have to rotate the strike and keep the score-card moving. This will make good totals great and increase their chances of winning.

Do let me know your thoughts on this - do you think this is a good stat to look at?

SA ODIs - India are 0-1 down

India lost the first ODI against South Africa in Durban last evening. Lost is probably a mild word - they were thumped by the hosts by a margin of 135 runs. MS Dhoni thought that the target was gettable if the visitors had not lost early wickets. But, let us be fair to ourselves - didnt we not expect the pitch to help the bowlers under lights? South African pitches, like the ones in Sri Lanka, tend to support the bowlers in the second innings of the day-night matches. More reason for MS Dhoni to win the toss - after he won one in the final test match, he reverted back to his old habits of losing the toss.

Hashim Amla seemed to be in top gear - I am sure all of you will agree that there is a bit of VVS in Amla's batting. His stroke-making is silken and it was clear that he had made the necessary changes to his game to excel in ODIs also. Laxman himself had done similar alterations to his game when he was scoring all those ODI centuries against Australia. But, India managed to grab wickets early and reduced the scoring rate by a fraction. JP Duminy and AB DeViliers are clearly the future of South African cricket - they gave a joint performance on how to recover the situation by clever running and rotation of the strikes. Another aspect that was refreshing was the clear thinking, especially with respect to the Batting Power-Play. This is one area where teams have seldom been succcessful in ODIs. By taking it when the two batsmen at crease were settled and run-rate had started picking up again, the South Africans reaped high dividends. 45 runs in 5 overs helped to a great extent and in hindsight, made up for the latter overs.

The Indians came back by the display of their part-time bowlers who were brought on more out of desperation. The Indians would do well to drop Nehra or Patel for the next match and bring on Ashwin. This decision will help in not only putting the brakes on the Proteas but also figure out how the two off-spinners (with different qualities) will play together. The WC2011 will be played on Indian pitches and it is important that Bhajji strikes up a good partnership with Ashwin quickly. On the other hand, South Africa by their display showed how they can be choked by spin - a worrying aspect before the WC starts.

The batting resembled the test team in the first test match - found out against two quality fast bowlers and two adept backup seamers. Murali Vijay tries to change his batting style in ODIs and his over-aggression acts against him mostly - he must learn to be patient in the first few overs, see off the new ball and then take calculated risks. The Legend who was returning back to ODIs after a long time had a rare failure, which meant that the youngsters were exposed to the new ball. One positive spin that I will try to put here is that it is good for youngsters like Kohli, Raina, Rohit Sharma and even Dhoni to face this bowling under difficult conditions - this experience will definitely pay off in the long run for the young batsmen.

Kohli repeated his act of scoring high in chasing situations while Raina tried to hit his way out. Even though the Indians had seven batsmen, the run-rate proved too high to scale. The Indians were able to make good use of Botha's overs but that was not enough. Going forward, the Indian team should try to reshuffle the batting so that the experienced batsmen come higher up the order. Dhoni, for example, should come at No.4 and try to keep one end going. Similarly, Yuvraj and Raina should go down the order and come in at a situation when runs are needed - 6 and 7 being the right places. Maybe, the next match. the Indians will try making Kohli open the batting so that Yusuf Pathan can be brought in.

Not a good start by the Indians last evening - will they equalize in the Bull Ring on Saturday?