World Cup 2011 - Mother of all battles

Castrol Index puts the semi-final between India and Pakistan at 153-149, quite closer than what would one expect looking at the rankings of the two teams.

Let us cut the hype that is out in the electronic media and see clear facts:

• The Indians have not lost to Pakistan in World Cup in four matches played so far. Sachin Tendulkar has played in all the editions and is very much aware of the pressure that comes as part of such matches. Will the streak come to an end? Do not think so - Pakistan has not lost to Sri Lanka in World Cup and the streak continued here as well. Similarly, New Zealand has beaten South Africa in KO matches in World Cup. Similarly, India's streak is set to continue. The Champions Trophy in 2009 saw the Indian team lose for the first time in an ICC tournament. There are quite a few players from both teams who played in this match but the one missing is the Player of the Match, Shoaib Malik. 
• The Pakistan team has not had anyone who has scored higher than the top twenty batsmen. There are 3 Indians in the top 10 who have scored heavily. 
• In the bowling department, Shahid Afridi comes up at the beginning of the table. Zaheer Khan has taken more wickets than Umar Gul. Similarly, Yuvraj Singh and Munaf Patel have taken more than the others in the Pakistan team. Obviously, Indian batsmen have to stave off the danger of Umar Gul more than Afridi, being better batsmen of spin.

The Indian team has been more consistent and even the only match that they lost was because of a poor last over by Ashish Nehra. Despite the big collapses, the team has not scored less than 200 any time. The top 3 batsmen have had starts almost every match and Yuvraj seems to be doing little wrong. The bowling has gained teeth thanks to the inclusion of Ashwin, who has given MS Dhoni an option to rely on other than Zaheer Khan. Harbhajan Singh has not been among wickets but restrained the run-scoring to a large extent. Yuvraj's bowling has been a bonus and there is no reason to think why he will not be able to continue his wicket-taking ways. Suresh Raina, Sachin Tendulkar and Virat Kohli will roll their arm over to compensate for any bowler who might have a bad day. So far, it has been Munaf Patel who has been taken apart but tomorrow will be a team that will give him rewards for his consistency of line and length. No changes are expected to the eleven unless Dhoni has another master-stroke up his sleeve. Gary Kirsten has clearly articulated to his team that they will have to raise their levels to beat their 'dangerous' opponent tomorrow.

Afridi suggested that Indians will be more pressurized tomorrow because of the home support. This is where the Pakistan team does not have a mental conditioning coach like Paddy Upton - the Indian team will definitely be the more cooler team on the ground, thanks to inputs from the coaches. MSD in fact, told his players clearly to be not worried by the hype that has been built up.

Shoaib Akhtar is doubtful for the match and one wonders whether there is any other story gaining ground there. The Minister had given a warning to the team two days back about match-fixing - the timing of his statement must make ICC stand up and take notice. Razzaq is key to the balance of the playing eleven as he has proved quite frequently in recent times. The spin department will be taken care by Hafeez and Ajmal, both off-spinners. The batting is brittle for Pakistan with Younis and Misbah expected to prosper against an attack that they have scored quite a few runs of. The Akmal brothers will come to the party hoping to repeat their success so far - once again, no one is sure about the catches that Kamran will take in this match. Coming to the fielding department, this is again one match that the Indians will be better equipped than their opponents.

Overall, a match that India should win convincingly if they can retain their head over the shoulders tomorrow. They are way above their opponents in form as well as quality of players in their lineup. But, will the media's hype play spoilsport? As far as my prediction goes, I will still go for an Indian-Sri Lankan final (Sri Lanka at this point is cruising in their semis today).

World Cup 2011 - Windies-Pak in Quarter-finals

The first Quarter-final gets underway in Mirpur on Wednesday between two teams that are not too dissimilar. The West Indies have, to take Greg Chappell's words few years ago, forgotten how to win. Pakistan is, the least to say, one team whose players themselves will not know how they will play on the day of the match (no, I am not hinting any other thoughts here). Castrol Index shows both of them to be very close - in fact, Windies lead the Pakistan team 150-149.

The Paks have beaten the World Champions in their last match and that must have given them a lot of confidence but that is not assuring anything for this team. Their bowlers have mostly won the match by restricting the targets that their not-so-sure batsmen have to chase. Umar Gul, Shahid Afridi have been the stars while the others have been more steady than spectacular. Hafeez, in particular, was miserly in the match against Australia. On the Mirpur pitch, will he be so effective against the Windies who admittedly played the Indian spinners better than most expected?

The batting of Pakistan has revolved mainly around Umar Akmal so far. The youngster is so talented that he will be able to walk in to any team's playing eleven but one is not so sure about where his priorities lie, if stories are to be believed. He shares a strong bond with his elder brother and that is where the rumor-mills start their tales about him feigning injuries to save Kamran's place in the squad. Misbah and Younis have played their part but failure to hit the boundaries (check their rotation rate) will cost the team critical runs in the final overs.

West Indies have to thank Devon Smith for his contributions so far and expect him to shore up the batting with the returning Chris Gayle. If Gayle can put his head together and stay for a decent period at the wicket, he can take the match away from the opposition. His is the key wicket for Pakistan for the dependency on him is so high that Windies have lost their way after his dismissals. Bravo has blown hot and cold while Sarwan has been disappointing. Only if these players can put up a score against Pakistan that is challenging to chase, the bowlers can probably play on the pressure created on the minds of Pakistan batsmen.

Kemar Roach is one bowler who will be expected to rip through the top-order of Pakistan with his sheer pace. Benn has opened the bowling but has not been so effective. Bishoo was very impressive in his stint against the Indians - he will play and I feel that he will do well once again taking wickets by the handful. Rampaul will play, thanks to his fifer against the Indians - who will be dropped to accommodate remains to be seen since Russell had played well in earlier games. It is a good sign for the Windies that their bowlers have slowly started to show signs of taking wickets.

An even game is what one might be tempted to call. But, Windies have not won enough against major test-playing nations in recent times. Will this be the match that will stop the bad streak? Will Pakistan self-destruct as they can? Interesting match in store tomorrow but I will support the Windies to create an upset here!

World Cup 2011 - The Spin Gambit

It has become a regular feature to watch some of the teams start with spin during this World Cup. If one notices closely, these are countries who do not have enough firepower with the new ball. Countries like New Zealand whose best bowler is Dan Vettori or West Indies with Suleiman Benn opened their bowling in their matches against Australia and South Africa respectively. The supporting attack is not good enough for either teams to take wickets or contain the runs scored. Thus, the team management decided to slow down the pace of the ball to increase their chances of taking wickets. Even a team like Bangladesh, which has three left-arm spinners, has refused to take the bait of adding more slow bowlers in their team - maybe that is why they struggled to put it across (153 - 138 in Castrol Index).

It came as a surprise then that the South African team also followed the same manner and started the bowling with Johan Botha. In fact, the team had three spinners in their team - a first for a team that prides on pace and speed. It was probably the lack of a good third bowler that made the Proteas think on the lines of having a three-prong spin attack. The Castrol Index of South Africa was 164 against 107 of West Indies - if only the team had a bowler like Ntini (in his prime) or Shaun Pollock, the difference would have been much more - such was the domination of the team. Morkel also does not benefit by the low bounce - a disadvantage for him especially since he thrives on the bounce his height can generate.

Australia has no such worries - their fast bowling trio of Lee, Tait and Mitch have been gunning past their opponents after the initial hiccups in the warm-up matches. Notice the domination in their match against the Kiwis (182 to 83 in Castrol Index) - Vettori had no answers to the might of the Oz even though his team was high on determination after the earthquake back home. The return of Bollinger will be a dampener though. Vettori might have had thoughts of early breakthroughs after seeing the Australian batsmen struggle against spin in the early matches but this one was different - there was no help to the trundlers on the Nagpur pitch negating the opening gambit.

Pakistan's attack looks balanced with bowlers like Shoaib, Razzaq and Umar Gul at the beginning, followed by Afridi and Ajmal. They have followed the traditional strategies teams have followed over years and that was good enough to result in a performance against the Kenyans that was dominating, to say the least (227-83).

Starting with spin might be good against teams that are relatively weak against spin but against the home teams  it is a recipe for disaster. Hence, the team management would do well to take the horses-for-courses approach in future matches.

Related articles

• World Cup 2011 - India thump Bangladesh (myhistoryisinteresting.blogspot.com)